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Run award simulations and cost scenarios

Model award scenarios that minimize cost under coverage constraints and compare against baselines.

This article shows you how to model award scenarios in the Strategic Sourcing module before committing: create a simulation with an objective, granularity, and coverage constraints, read the results, compare them against baselines, use the Explain tab to justify each award, and carry the outcome into your award decision.

What is a simulation and where do I create one?

A simulation is a what-if award model: it assigns suppliers to the work at a chosen granularity to optimize an objective, using real submitted prices. Simulations live at /buyer/sourcing-project/<event-id>/simulations, a hub with three tabs (Suppliers, Analytics, and Compare) plus a scenario map that plots every scenario by total cost versus supplier concentration. Simulations run on projects defined in the Project Builder; if none exist, the page shows "No Projects Configured" with a link to the Project Builder, and suppliers must have submitted pricing ("No Projects With Supplier Pricing" otherwise). Click Create Simulation to open the dialog.

How do I configure a simulation?

  1. In the Setup tab, name the simulation (for example "Q1 Cost Optimization Scenario"), add notes or assumptions, and click Add Projects to pick the projects to include. Use Enter Constraints Mode to click prices in the portfolio table: one click locks a supplier's price for a project (excluding all others), a second click excludes only that price, a third clears it.

  2. In Objective & Strategy, pick the Primary Objective: Minimize Total Cost, Best Value (Cost + Quality), Maximize Diversification, or Minimize Risk Concentration (options marked "coming soon" are not yet selectable). Set Min Coverage, the minimum percentage of line items a supplier must have priced to be considered (for example 80%); suppliers below it are excluded from assignment.

  3. Still in Objective & Strategy, choose the Awarding Granularity: Project (one supplier per project), Component (one supplier per component), or Material (one supplier per line item).

  4. In Volume Discounts, enable or disable each supplier's bulk discounts for this scenario. All costs in the results include the applied discounts.

  5. In Advanced Config, set the cost pipeline: a Missing Price Strategy (None, Average Fill, Worst Case Fill, Best Alternative Fill, or Partial Cost) and which pricing columns contribute to total cost and how (multiply by quantity, flat addition, or percentage adder).

  6. Click create. You see "Simulation created successfully" and the scenario appears in the hub.

The Create New Simulation dialog on the Objective and Strategy tab showing the Primary Objective, Supplier Assignment Mode and Awarding Granularity selectors, the Min Coverage field, and the pipeline configuration.

How do I read the results?

A simulation's detail page has four tabs: Overview, Awards, Explain, and Negotiation Pack. The Awards tab lists, per project: Awarded To, Awarded Cost, Cheapest Allowed, Unconstrained Winner, Premium Vs Cheapest, and any constraints applied, plus a cost matrix of every supplier's cost per project instance: green cells are the awarded supplier, yellow values are cheaper feasible alternatives, struck-through values are excluded. Partial bids are flagged: "Awarded to X on a partial bid - they priced 8 of 10 items". The Negotiation Pack tab turns the result into export-first talking points by lot, commodity group, and supplier, with "Gap to best", "Target %", and an ask range. If underlying data changes (new submissions, a new round), the scenario is badged Outdated; click Recompute to refresh it.

The simulation Awards tab showing the awarded supplier and cheapest-allowed comparison per project, and the cost matrix with green awarded cells and yellow cheaper alternatives, with the baseline selector top right.

What do the baselines mean?

Every simulation is compared against a baseline you pick from the dropdown on the detail page. The table below lists the available baselines.

Baseline

What it represents

Worst Case

Every project awarded at the highest available price (the ceiling). Default baseline; "Savings vs worst case" is reported against it.

Lowest Bid

The cheapest single bid taken at face value per scope.

Unconstrained Optimal

The cheapest possible allocation if no locks, exclusions, or coverage rules applied; it shows what your constraints cost.

Single Supplier (Worst)

The most expensive outcome of awarding everything to one supplier.

What does the Explain tab tell me?

The Explain tab justifies each award decision. Select a project to see "Why this award?": the awarded cost, the best single supplier, and the delta, with locked or excluded constraints badged. The "Price to win" panel lets you select a competitor and shows the exact reduction (percent and value) they would need to win, with a slider to test assumptions and suggested levers showing which scopes drive the gap. The "Cost drivers" table breaks the gap down scope by scope, and the "Bulk discount what-if" panel models volume-discount scenarios, using the supplier's real discount program or custom tiers, to see whether a discount would flip the award.

How do I use a simulation for the actual award?

A simulation informs the award in three ways: the hub's Compare tab puts up to 4 scenarios side by side and shows every award switch between them (supplier and cost delta per project); the Negotiation Pack arms your final talks; and the Awarding page's savings metric ("Savings vs. Worst") mirrors the simulation baseline logic so you can sanity-check the final allocation against your best scenario before you finalize. The award itself is recorded on the Awarding page; see "Award the event and notify suppliers".

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